Trend regime, momentum, risk — and what a rule-based system does about it. Computed daily by the IVEST research system. As of 2026-07-09.
1-year price (gold) vs 200-day moving average (dashed). Last close 45.32
These rules describe how systematic trend-following strategies typically operate — a framework, not a recommendation for any individual.
| Horizon | Return | Universe percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | +9.8% | 87 |
| 3M | -1.2% | 33 |
| 6M | -23.7% | 8 |
| 12M | -39.1% | 6 |
Cross-sectional percentile ranks PYPL against ~200 liquid US names — a stock can be "up" and still lag the tape. Persistent top-quartile momentum across horizons is the profile trend systems allocate to.
Trend regime uses the 200-day moving average — the same gate the IVEST core applies before holding leveraged exposure. Composite score = 40·(trend) + 40·(momentum percentile) + 20·(1 − volatility percentile): fully transparent. Beta/correlation vs SPY over the last 12 months. Every number regenerates daily from raw prices — no analyst opinion in the loop.
No — PYPL trades -14.6% below its 200-day moving average; trend systems treat this regime as risk-off.
No page can answer that for you — but a trend system's checklist is public: regime ❌ below the 200-day line; momentum percentile 33/100; extension normal; predefined exit at 53.06. If any of those words are unfamiliar, position sizing — not stock picking — is the first thing to learn (Kelly calculator).
53.06 as of 2026-07-09 (close 45.32, -14.6%). The 50-day sits at 44.47 — the 50/200 relationship is currently a dead cross.
Annualized volatility 33%, worst single day in the last year -20.3%, worst peak-to-trough -50%. Beta to SPY: 1.23. Size positions so that this drawdown profile is survivable — see the playbook above.