Trend regime, momentum, risk — and what a rule-based system does about it. Computed daily by the IVEST research system. As of 2026-09-01.
1-year price (gold) vs 200-day moving average (dashed). Last close 396.75
These rules describe how systematic trend-following strategies typically operate — a framework, not a recommendation for any individual.
| Horizon | Return | Universe percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | +6.7% | 77 |
| 3M | -3.7% | 20 |
| 6M | -15.2% | 7 |
| 12M | +24.7% | 64 |
Cross-sectional percentile ranks GLD against ~200 liquid US names — a stock can be "up" and still lag the tape. Persistent top-quartile momentum across horizons is the profile trend systems allocate to.
Trend regime uses the 200-day moving average — the same gate the IVEST core applies before holding leveraged exposure. Residual momentum strips the market-beta component from returns before ranking — the single-factor edition of the signal the IVEST live book actually allocates on (the live version adds multi-factor residualization and earnings features under CPCV validation). Trend persistence measures how consistently the name held its regime over the last quarter. Composite score = 30·(trend) + 25·(raw momentum pct) + 25·(residual momentum pct) + 20·(1 − volatility pct): fully transparent. Every number regenerates daily from raw prices — no analyst opinion in the loop.
No — GLD trades -4.4% below its 200-day moving average; trend systems treat this regime as risk-off.
No page can answer that for you — but a trend system's checklist is public: regime ❌ below the 200-day line; momentum percentile 20/100; extension normal; predefined exit at 414.99. If any of those words are unfamiliar, position sizing — not stock picking — is the first thing to learn (Kelly calculator).
414.99 as of 2026-09-01 (close 396.75, -4.4%). The 50-day sits at 386.74 — the 50/200 relationship is currently a dead cross.
Annualized volatility 30%, worst single day in the last year -10.3%, worst peak-to-trough -26%. Beta to SPY: 0.72. Size positions so that this drawdown profile is survivable — see the playbook above.