Trend regime, momentum, risk — and what a rule-based system does about it. Computed daily by the IVEST research system. As of 2026-08-19.
1-year price (gold) vs 200-day moving average (dashed). Last close 83.02
These rules describe how systematic trend-following strategies typically operate — a framework, not a recommendation for any individual.
| Horizon | Return | Universe percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | -0.4% | 35 |
| 3M | +1.2% | 32 |
| 6M | -5.5% | 18 |
| 12M | +0.4% | 24 |
Cross-sectional percentile ranks TLT against ~200 liquid US names — a stock can be "up" and still lag the tape. Persistent top-quartile momentum across horizons is the profile trend systems allocate to.
Trend regime uses the 200-day moving average — the same gate the IVEST core applies before holding leveraged exposure. Residual momentum strips the market-beta component from returns before ranking — the single-factor edition of the signal the IVEST live book actually allocates on (the live version adds multi-factor residualization and earnings features under CPCV validation). Trend persistence measures how consistently the name held its regime over the last quarter. Composite score = 30·(trend) + 25·(raw momentum pct) + 25·(residual momentum pct) + 20·(1 − volatility pct): fully transparent. Every number regenerates daily from raw prices — no analyst opinion in the loop.
No — TLT trades -2.8% below its 200-day moving average; trend systems treat this regime as risk-off.
No page can answer that for you — but a trend system's checklist is public: regime ❌ below the 200-day line; momentum percentile 32/100; extension normal; predefined exit at 85.37. If any of those words are unfamiliar, position sizing — not stock picking — is the first thing to learn (Kelly calculator).
85.37 as of 2026-08-19 (close 83.02, -2.8%). The 50-day sits at 83.93 — the 50/200 relationship is currently a dead cross.
Annualized volatility 11%, worst single day in the last year -1.9%, worst peak-to-trough -9%. Beta to SPY: 0.17. Size positions so that this drawdown profile is survivable — see the playbook above.